The Future of Internet Bandwidth: Scaling Above 1Gbps and Unforeseen Impacts
The trend of internet speed continues to evolve, with some top users already accessing speeds of up to 10Gbps. However, for general web usage, these high speeds may seem unnecessary. Currently, any speed above 200Mbps is largely impractical for content delivery, as few content providers offer speeds at that level. Therefore, higher speeds are mainly useful for downloading or uploading large files. Surfing to websites that contain less than 20MB of data can be completed in seconds, regardless of your internet link speed. In most cases, it takes a few seconds to reach maximum speed, and web pages typically load in less than 1MB of data on screen.
A New Dimension in Internet Usage
Given the current state of internet usage, it becomes evident that a new type of service or technology is needed for speeds above 1Gbps to be beneficial for general users. In Sweden, over 80% of premises have 1Gbps capabilities, indicating a shift towards higher speeds. However, very few users have more than 100Mbps. It is noteworthy that increasing internet speed to 100Mbps often only doubles the cost for users, yet no service utilizes speeds above 50Mbps per user. Hence, 100Mbps makes sense for a household but not necessarily for 1Gbps.
Unexpected Innovations and Technology
Predicting new innovations or technological advancements is nearly impossible. Who would have thought that multi-spectrum fiber would increase data rates from 1Gbps to 100Gbps, or that the “dark fiber” from the dot-com bust would lead to streaming services like Netflix, which then had to invent the technology? Analogously, how could anyone have foreseen Einsteins' famous equation, Emc^2? H.G. Wells wrote a book about atomic bombs, but his prediction was far from the reality of what was to come. Undoubtedly, the key to the future lies in unexpected developments, as dictated by Moore's Law, which has proven to align with historical trends.
Embracing the Unknown: Rethinking Future Internet Needs
Historically, predictions of technology have often fallen short. For example, a Datamation article in 1975 predicted the end of magnetic memory and the rise of optical memory, which did not materialize. Instead, magnetic memory outlived optical CD-ROMs and is now only beginning to be replaced by SSDs. Similarly, bubbles memory and Joseph's effect devises, once predicted to revolutionize technology, were never realized. These examples underscore the fact that we cannot predict the future; we can only invent it.
Conclusion
The increasing bandwidth above 1Gbps is a testament to rapid technological advancement. While these speeds may be overkill for general web usage today, the future may bring unforeseen applications and industries that could benefit from such high-speed internet. As we continue to develop and adapt, the key lies in embracing the unexpected, as the internet and technology evolve in ways that we cannot foresee today.