What's the Chances of Serbia Intervening Militarily in Kosovo?

The possibility of Serbia intervening militarily in Kosovo with an all-out war against NATO troops stands at zero, having learned the harsh lessons of 1999 where they were decisively defeated by a German general.

Paramilitaries and Undercover Operations

Despite the Peace, there are over 2,000 paramilitary and undercover forces, known as BIA and MUP, sent and orchestrated from the Belgrade regime to destabilize North Kosovo. This raises the question of war without a formal declaration. The motives run deep, not just for the Trepca mine and minerals, but for control of water resources. Water is power in these regions, as the Ujmani Gazivode reservoir provides 70% of the water supply to Pristina and Elektrokos Kosova.

Political Finance and Motivations

Besides economic and strategic interests, the political motivations of President Vucic and his party play a critical role. The Vucic Progressive Party funds its operations through money laundering, cryptominings, smuggling, and diverting VAT revenues to the party's coffers. This financial dependency likely constrains Vucic from taking drastic actions that could jeopardize Kosovo's status. The group is involved in several millions of Euros, making stability a significant concern.

The saying goes, "follow the money." Understanding these financial intricacies is crucial for comprehending the complex political landscape in the region.

NATO and EU Mediation Efforts

A recent report from Balkan Insight highlights President Vucic's commitment to peaceful dialogue and his avoidance of military or aggressive language towards Kosovo. NATO forces, stationed in Kosovo, have been closely monitoring the situation and have not reported any signs of military buildup or aggression from Serbia. The European Union (EU) has been actively involved in mediating talks between Serbia and Kosovo, aiming to resolve longstanding issues. Serbias desire to join the EU requires it to normalize relations with Kosovo, making military intervention highly unlikely as it risks jeopardizing its EU accession process.

Current Tensions and Future Outlook

Despite the peace, tensions between Serbia and Kosovo remain high, with occasional outbreaks of violence. It is imperative for both sides to continue engaging in peaceful dialogue, and for NATO forces to maintain a strong presence in Kosovo to deter any potential military actions. Recent developments and statements from Serbian officials suggest that diplomacy and peaceful dialogue remain the preferred approach for resolving issues between the two countries.

Conclusion

While the possibility of a military intervention by Serbia in Kosovo cannot be completely ruled out, the current stance of Serbia and the involvement of NATO and the EU suggest that a peaceful resolution remains the most likely outcome.

References

- Balkan Insight. - NATO.