Market Insights and Trading Strategies for June 16, 2021

In today's market analysis, we will explore the expected performance of the Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and key sectors such as Nifty Pharma, CNX AUTO, and CNX FMCG. Additionally, we will discuss the impact of upcoming events, including weekly expiry, monthly expiry, and the major event of Reliance AGM, on the stock market.

Market Overview and Expectations for June 16, 2021

As we approach the trading day on June 16, 2021, there are several key events to consider. Among these are weekly and monthly expiries, which can create volatility due to the influx of cover positions and settlements. Additionally, the AGM of Reliance, a major corporate event, is expected to have a positive impact on the market.

Bank Nifty Analysis

My earlier analysis suggested that the Bank Nifty could potentially move 1500 points higher in the remaining period of this month and next month. Today, the Bank Nifty has already moved about 600 points, closing with a gain of 537 points. For Monday, if Bank Nifty opens above 35600, it is expected to come down to around 35300. If it opens lower, a confident buy could be placed around 35365. The strategy is based on the alignment of the open and low prices.

Nifty 50 Analysis

Data points to a flat and rangebound market for the day, with the possibility of positive movement. The Nifty 50 is expected to open near 15770, and positions can be taken based on the closing of the first candle. If the market closes above 15770, a call for good upside can be taken. Alternatively, if the market remains rangebound till 1 PM, options can be bought in the breakout side.

Strategic Trades for Today

Concentrating on three to four opportunities today, my trading strategy involves:

Waiting for the first candle to close. If it closes above 15770, a long position can be taken. Looking for a short position if the market closes below 15770. Taking a call for good upside if the Nifty goes above 15770. Buying Reliance at 2210–30 with a stop loss at 2180. If it opens with a big gap up, the trade can be adjusted accordingly, holding the position till the end of the day.

It's important to note that I trade with strict stop losses and am adaptable to changes in the market. While the trade plan worked well for Nifty, it went awry with Reliance, but the overall outcome was still profitable.

Sector Analysis

For the specific sectors:

Nifty Pharma

Nifty Pharma is expected to trade between 15150 and 15050, moving within this range regardless of how it opens.

CNX AUTO

The CNX AUTO sector is expected to decline, with a range likely to be between 10750 and 10650.

CNX FMCG

CNX FMCG is expected to move upward, with a range expected to be between 35900 and 36100.

Event-Driven Trading

The AGM of Reliance is a significant event and is expected to positively influence the market. However, traders should be prepared for potential volatility and should use strict stop loss measures.

This detailed analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the short-term outlook for selected financial instruments and events, enabling traders to make informed decisions.