Is Mitt Romney the Republican Equivalent of John Kerry?

It seems Mitt Romney is starting to resemble John Kerry in some critical ways. Republicans are showing a similar apprehension towards Romney as Democrats did towards Kerry.

Both candidates faced significant challenges within their party:

Insufficient Ideological Alignment

Romney and Kerry were both viewed as less than ideal by their respective parties, albeit with broader ideological divides. The divide in Romney's party might be more damaging due to its potential impact on votes. Both candidates lacked the passion and charisma that could energize their bases and were seen as individuals willing to adapt to changing political tides.

Experience and Qualifications

Experience Compares

Both Kerry and Romney had reasonable claims to experience:

Kerry was a recognized foreign policy expert and veteran, making him suitable during a period when foreign relations dominated. Romney offered a strong business background and moderate success as a governor, aligning with issues of the economy and effective leadership.

Both candidates run against sitting presidents whose popularity is contentious (debatable).

Fear of Attack Ads and Base Energization

The downfall of Kerry is largely attributed to his inability to win over the middle ground, a significant part of which can be traced back to successful attack ads. It remains to be seen how Romney will fare in this aspect. Both candidates face challenges in energizing their respective bases, but both also have the benefit of running against a sitting president who is unpopular with the base of the opposing party.

Candidate Communication and Charisma

Communication and Public Speaking

Both candidates are moderately effective communicators. Kerry faced challenges compared to the notoriously clumsy President George W. Bush, whereas Romney is running against a President who is universally acknowledged as a fantastic orator by all, except the fiercest critics. This presents Romney with a particularly challenging situation.

Elitism and Class Issues

Elitism and Economic Inequality

Both candidates struggle with accusations of elitism. However, Romney's struggles come amid tumultuous economic times, raising concerns about economic equality and unfair advantages for the wealthy. Kerry faced more character-based accusations compared to Romney.

The Unique Challenge: The First Mormon President

Mitt Romney and the First Mormon President

The most distinctive aspect of Romney's candidacy is that he would be the first Mormon president. No other candidate has faced this unique challenge. President Bush won re-election with the backing of an energized Evangelical vote, and there is reason to believe that these voters may not support a Mormon candidate, especially one with a mixed record on abortion. This issue has a high potential to impact Romney's electability.

While it might be a cautionary tale, the current situation suggests that Romney in 2012 retains a similar profile to Kerry in 2004: a mediocre candidate who may lose against a sitting president.