Delhi Elections 2020: Understanding the Shift in Muslim Votes
Recently, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal made a statement suggesting that the Muslim vote shifted to the Congress party at the last minute during the Lok Sabha elections. This has sparked discussions about the future of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and its prospects in the upcoming 2020 Assembly elections.
Kejriwal's Comments and Their Implications
Kejriwal’s statements indicate a lack of confidence in the AAP's performance, particularly in the Muslim-majority areas. He claims that the AAP was winning all 7 seats until 48 hours before the election, and that the vote switched to the Congress at the last moment. This admission by Kejriwal raises questions about the party's ability to manage and win the Muslim vote, which has been a crucial component of its success in the past.
Arvind Kejriwal’s statement is a clear indication of the shifting political landscape, where the Congress party has become a more prominent force. This shift is likely due to the fact that the AAP and Congress share a similar vote bank, particularly among the Muslim population. In the 2015 Assembly elections, the AAP's win was largely attributed to the decline in the Congress's influence in Delhi. However, with a potential resurgence of the Congress, the AAP may face significant challenges in retaining its position.
Strategic Voting and Its Impact
Strategic voting, a common trend across many parts of India, has played a significant role in Delhi's election dynamics. Many Muslims have historically waited until the last moment to evaluate the political situation, then casting their votes for the strongest candidate who can effectively oppose the BJP. This tactic may have been employed in several Delhi seats.
As a result, Kejriwal now has a plausible explanation for a potential defeat. In case his party finishes in third place in a few seats, he can invoke the 'Muslim vote shift' theory to justify his predicament. This narrative may allow him to avoid a more dramatic concession or embarrassment.
Leaders' Predictions and Strategic Maneuvering
Other political leaders, including KCR and Chandrababu Naidu, are now focusing on post-election coalitions. Congress has started indicating interest in sacrificing the PM post to prevent a BJP victory. Such strategic moves signal a shift in political dynamics and a possible advantage for Congress in the upcoming elections.
The AAP seems to be downplaying its chances of success. For instance, Punya Prasoon Vajpayee had predicted that AAP would likely win only one seat, while Congress could secure three or more. This prediction aligns with Kejriwal's recent statements, suggesting a significant shift in voter behavior among the Muslim population.
Lessons from Previous Elections
Analysts point to the 2014 and 2017 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh (UP) as examples of strategic voting. In UP, Muslims largely voted en bloc for the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and RLD alliance. Similarly, in Delhi, it is likely that Muslims are employing a similar strategy to support the Congress over the AAP and BJP.
The strategic voting among Muslims is expected to impact the BJP's performance negatively. With Hindus casting their votes based on caste, such as in the 2014 and 2017 UP elections, the BJP may struggle to meet its expected vote count. On the other hand, AAP’s winning prospects rely heavily on the Muslim vote, making it vulnerable to strategic shifts.
Call to Action for Hindus
The article concludes with a call to action for Hindus to become a more unified vote bank. The author argues that adopting the same strategic voting behavior as Muslims can significantly improve Hindu electoral outcomes. The BJP, despite its effective governance, has not managed to garner Muslim votes due to their preference for parties that project themselves as vote banks.
To counter this, the article suggests that Hindus must reject theories of secularism and caste-based voting and instead project a unified front based on performance and merit. Historically, the BJP has achieved remarkable success in providing essential services to common people, irrespective of their religious affiliations. The Yogi government's law and order in UP further highlights the benefits of a unified Hindu vote.
The article concludes with a strong recommendation for Hindus to vote for Narendra Modi for the 7th phase of the election, emphasizing that his next tenure with a BJP majority can bring the Uniform Civil Code. This, in conjunction with the broader lessons from previous election cycles, underscores the significance of strategic voting and political alliance formation in upcoming elections.